The year 2013 will go down in the record books as a good year for both owners and managers of residential income properties. If you listen to the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) the opportunity to be a homeowner hasn’t been this affordable in a long time.
Home prices, which have been rising at a rate of 10%-12% — depending on which data you use. Home prices will rise half as much in 2014 because more supply will come on to the market. Inventory is now below the usual six-month average, credit remains tight and unemployment and underemployment will remain high even if they’ve declined over the past year.
How can we have price growth that we didn’t see in decades? Some say it doesn’t make any sense. About 40% of Americans have low or negative equity in their homes. Homeowners can’t trade up, make a lateral move [or} downsize, so they sit.
And those who have the resources and good credit to buy will find that mortgage rates are higher. This is mostly due to the Fed’s recent decision to reduce its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed- securities (MBS). Qualifying for a new loan is and will continue to be harder than in recent years.
Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, lenders are required to meet new underwriting standards for “qualified mortgages” (QM) if they want greater protection from lawsuits. A QM loan must have a regular schedule for payment of principal and interest and fees paid by the borrower can’t exceed 3% of the loan amount and monthly payments can’t exceed 43% of the borrower’s gross income.
The new rules “will continue to slow the momentum of improvement” in the housing market. They will bog things down for the first half of the year…an adjustment period that is probably a necessary evil. The hope, of course, is that the new regulations will help protect the financial system from a crisis like the one in 2007-2008.
These new rules will also impact Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) — the government sponsored enterprises that are still the backbone of the mortgage market. They buy about two-thirds of new mortgages and bundle them into mortgage-backed securities for sale in the secondary market. Fannie & Freddie will buy only mortgages that meet most of the QM criteria.
In addition, Fannie and Freddie are raising the fees they charge mortgage lenders in exchange for guaranteeing new loans. The increase will make Fannie & Freddie-backed loans more expensive, which will create more opportunities for private companies to compete in the same mortgage market.
So 2014 looks like a more challenging year for both property owners and managers, but don’t let that worry you. The flip side and the silver lining is that owners who have invested in areas where vacancy rates are low will still find plenty of desperate renters wanting to become residents.
For property managers, whether your region has an abundance of potential renters or a deficit, if you’re a smart competitor with the latest and best technology, software and marketing strategies, you’ll outshine your competition.